media landscaping

Are the "Influentials" Dead?

Duncan Watts, a network-theory scientist who now works at Yahoo, has performed many experiments that disprove the true influence of 'The Influentials'.  An article in Fast Company, Is the Tipping Point Toast, lays out Duncan's beliefs that all the money spent by marketers to target Influentials has been wasted.

Watts believes [...] a trend's success depends not on the person who starts it, but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend--not how persuasive the early adopter is, but whether everyone else is easily persuaded. And in fact, when Watts tweaked his model to increase everyone's odds of being infected, the number of trends skyrocketed.

So rather than target influentials, marketers should be looking for the easily influenced?   That sounds like fun.

(via Ad Lab)

The Future of Television Advertising

A panel at the Future TV conference in New York discussed what TV advertising will look like in the future and it sounds strangely familiar to the world of internet display advertising today.  As technology evolves to allow targeting down to the household level.

By aggregating the disparate local cable advertising in ways that deliver meaningful sub-segments of viewers, Steib [Mike Steib, director of Google TV Ads] said Google TV ads program is able to create audience mixes that likely would have higher advertising value than their remnant avails currently have on their own, and which theoretically could compete in value with some of the TV industry's most premium network TV inventory.

"There's all these opportunities to drive sell out," he said, "much, much closer to 100% and to take the CPMs up significantly when you start matching the right advertising with the right audiences."

Joan Gillman, president-media sales at Time Warner Cable, and Barry Frey, senior vice president-advanced platform sales at Cablevision, concurred with Steib's vision, though they didn't necessarily think it would be the exclusive province of Google.

"We can give the data, that measurement is there, but the actual customer data is at the operator level," Gillman said, portraying a vision for aggregated TV advertising networks that are not unlike the kind that are becoming increasingly popular in the online world, which are based more on the behavioral targeting of consumers than traditional demographic targets.

The initial vision for this is aggregation of "long tail" content across multiple channels and selling them static as one package, which is nothing like dynamic behavioral targeting at all.   Its a start but is still very far away.

Real TV behavioral targeting would be serving ads to viewers based on what they have watched in the past...not the content they are watching now.  The cable-box would need to have a memory and be able to transmit viewing data back to the ad providers, who then send an ad customized to the viewership of that TV.

The MediaPost article about this panel, Future Of TV Ad Market: A Lot Like Online's -- Ad Networks, Behavioral Targeting, Etc. is interesting but left me wanting more.  TV still has a long way to go to catch up to the efficiency of online advertising.

Amazing Image Technology and the Newspaper

I just came across this video from a recent TED Conference.  The technology is completely mind-blowing, but I was particularly fascinated with how this could impact the future of 'electronic editions' of newspapers and magazines. 

I still don't think that people want to read their paper this way, but with infinite resolution like this I could end up changing my mind.

Wanted: Widget Advertising

Brands that are truly embracing todays world of social media are experimenting with widgets because they know that people will evangelize and spread their love of a brand if given the tools to do so.  One good example is the Purina Pet Weather Widget.

The one thing that I am seeing very little of is actual advertising in widgets.  With the popularity of widgets growing like wildfire, I suspect that media companies who are creating these widgets will start selling a portion of the space to advertisers.   Here is the first example that I have found:

Notice the Lenovo Sponsorship at the top.

They also produce some video highlight widgets with ads from Sprite in their Video Blog, but the code didn't work right.  Here is an image of it on the left.

I think that there will be a few challenges for this type of advertising.  First of all is size.  Widgets are small to begin with, so adding advertisements runs the risk of seriously hurting the experience.

The second challenge will be my Theory of Widget Advertising Elasticity and its affect on widget adoption.  As the % of space allocated to advertising  increases, it will decrease the willingness of publishers to place that widget on their site.  This is a very important thing for media properties to consider and I believe it is the main reason we aren't seeing much of it yet.

Due to the fact that the NBA is a very premium content owner and you cannot get this content any other way, I think they have a very high widget ad elasticity.  Therefore, these ads are probably not impacting their adoption by bloggers and other publishers.

If you notice any other widgets with ads like this, let me know.  I want to keep a close eye on this topic. 

More to come...

Rocketbooms New Podcast Ad Model

I was on vacation last week and very busy at work the week before that, so sorry for the long posting drought.  (You'll get over it I'm sure)

Catching up on things I missed while I was at the beach, I noticed that Andrew Baron and the folks at Rocketboom rolled out a new model for advertising in their podcast.  PodcastingNews breaks it down to this:

The show plans to charge $3,000 per episode for sponsorships, which will include:

• Post Roll Sponsorship Gratitude. White text on black background. Company logo and byline. 7 seconds. Travels with all videos to all platforms (incl. web, phone, tv, portables). Quicktime videos online are clickable to open company website in a new browser window.
• Company Name & Link. Travels as metadata to most platforms (inc. RSS feeds). Increases company link value across the web.
• Sponsor Blog Entry. Click here for details.
• Quicktime Chapter Marker. Easy access to sponsor message from chapter drop-down box.

Early sponsors under this format are Twitter and YouTube..coincidently timed with the launch of Rocketboom's own YouTube channel.    I am surprised it took Andrew this long to get on YouTube.

Marie Claire Would Sell Her Soul for an Ad $

Marie Claire, the womens fashion and beauty magazine, launched a video podcast late last year (produced by Podshow).  The show is called "The Masthead" and is sponsored by Unilever.  One thing they seem to ignore though is the healthy line between church and state.  It should always be clear what is an ad and what isn't.

Yesterday, I was on a call with the ad agency for an auto-maker who asked for "video ads beyond pre-roll...I want true integration.  If you can pull that off, we have HUGE dollars to throw at you."  I am sure that all publishers are hearing this, but those who have a division between church and state are going to have a hard time pulling this off. 

If you know of any examples of this being done well, please let me know.  This project from Marie Claire is an example of what I am NOT looking for.

They apparently have no editorial line at all and were able to land a big deal for Unilever by dropping all ethical concerns and taking one for the team.

The very first episode I watched this morning, episode 8 "NY Fashion Week", started off with Editor-at-Large, Joyce Caruso-Corrigan saying, "we are looking for trends and we are looking for the NEWS.  At the end of the day we are a magazine...its JOURNALISM...and we depend on NEWS every season."  OK, so assuming this is news about NY Fashion Week, why do they only cover the fashion show of their sponsor, Diesel?

Womens Wear Daily notes that,

Nearly every one of the eight segments so far has prominently featured Unilever beauty products in scenes with the magazine's editors, and the most recent one included footage of the Diesel New York show, with Marie Claire fashion director Tracy Taylor explaining in the podcast, "What I love about Diesel…."

In episode 4, Paula Knight, Associate Fashion Editor, holds Degree Deodorant in her hand while she tells the viewer that they have to return the garments to the show when done, so the models have to wear clear deodorant so they don't stain the dresses.  They even do a close up on the deodorant to be sure that the viewer can see it is Degree she is holding...a Unilever Brand.

I have a few questions.

Is this really journalism as Ms Caruso-Corrigan claims?

Is this what ad agencies want when they ask for "Integration"? 

Do advertisers really want to do business with a property who is so desperate for ad dollars that they will cross these lines?

I think it is fine for Podshow to produce these and it is a great idea for Marie Claire to be playing in this new media realm.  However, you can't call this journalism.  Its a 9 minute ad that comes out every two weeks, disguised as editorial.  Lets hope that dying magazines don't continue to sell their souls like this just to survive a little longer.   

A nod to BrandBrains for the link.

Dallas Radio Station Gets Rid of Ads

Radio Stations change formats all the time.  If Alternative Rock isn't cutting it, then maybe a switch to Latin Pop will produce the ad $ they so desperately need.  Well, KZPS in Dallas is taking this to the extreme.  Apparently the switch from classic rock to a "Texas-inflected rock-country hybrid" format was not enough this time.  They are going to drastically revamp the ad model as well.

Instead of selling 30-60 second ads as radio normally does, they are going to a time-based sponsorship model.  According to an article in todays NYT:

Instead, advertisers sponsor an hour of programming, during which a D.J. will promote its product conversationally in what the company calls integration.

For example, the D.J. will identify Southwest Airlines, one of the station’s first advertisers, as the sponsor at the beginning of the program. In a prototype provided by the station, the D.J. later discusses the South by Southwest music festival, a popular annual event held in Austin, and concludes, “You know, the best way to get down to Austin for South by Southwest is Southwest Airlines. They have tons of flights. It’s the way I travel.”

The product-themed chitchat will account for about two minutes peppered throughout the hour, in contrast to the 12 minutes to 16 minutes of commercials that most stations broadcast each hour.

Clear Channel is clearly using this station as a proving ground for new ideas and I like the experimentation.  The belief behind this seems to be that consumers hate ads and will favor a station that plays more music and less "SUNDAY, SUNDAY, SUNDAY" ads that scream at you like your an idiot. 

I have two main concerns about this model:

1. Advertisers will really need to adjust their mindset on reach and frequency.  For years radio stations have been preaching high freq and now this strategy (a total 2 minutes of ad content per hour) says frequency doesn't matter.
2. Since they are cutting their inventory down to ~1/8 of normal levels, they will need to raise rates significantly in order to maintain current revenue levels.  Even if the audience doubles as a result of this move, they will need to raise rates by 4x in order to stay flat.  That will be very tough.

I may be over-simplifying the economics of radio (and showing some ignorance as well) but this is going to be tough and I wish them luck.

Bud TV Loses its Fizz

According to Ad Age today, Anheuser -Busch's Bud.TV has experienced a massive audience drop in March.

Bud.TV drew 152,000 unique visitors last month, 40% fewer than February's 253,000 visitors, according to numbers released today by ComScore Media Metrix. A-B executives have said that they hope to draw between 2 million and 3 million visitors per month by early next year to the online network, which is costing the brewer somewhere between $30 million and $40 million.

Bud.TV's original traffic numbers were all generated as a result of a major ad campaign.  I went there, as many others did, to check it out.  I did find some funny content, but I had to wade through a lot of crap to find it. 

Because the content is kinda lame and predictable and not updated regularly, the only way they will be able to sustain any respectable traffic level is through TV, Radio and Online Ads.  These Ad-Driven-Traffic models will never hold up long term without really compelling content; which to this point they do not have.

Ghost Sites of the Web says that cluggy coding also makes it very unfriendly to search engines.  Major rookie mistake. 

To be successful, the site needs to find ways to get people back to the site organically.  Here is my advice:

1. Expand beyond Video:  Video is expensive and takes a long time to create.  The site hasn't changed since it launched around the superbowl.
2. Podcast:  Audio is much cheaper and easier to create.  This could keep Bud.TV top of mind by having regular content show in consumers iTunes once a week.
3. Blog:  I think Ted Ferguson (the Stuntman character) could put out some really funny content on a regular basis.  If you don't like character blogs, then pay someone to round up funny content everyday from around the web.  Just give us some reason to come back every day.  Something I can subscribe to in an RSS reader.
4. Use the above mediums to promote any new video content when it comes out. 
5. Syndicate the content.  Let bloggers take the videos they like and embed them in their blogs.  Just putting some of the videos on YouTube (as they have done) is not enough.

The concept is good, but if they get in a position where traffic is reliant too heavily on their own advertising, the project is doomed.

 

Chaos Scenario

I finally got through reading Bob Garfield's latest installment of his Chaos Scenario series.  I know I'm a week late, but cut me some slack...its been busy around here.

You should know the story by now.  Mass media and the shotgun marketing strategies that it has enabled for years are both dying on the vine.  In steps disaggregated media consumption, forcing marketers to stop all of the yelling and actually build relationships with consumers...all powered by the web.  Its not happening overnight, but the winds of change are blowing and you ad agencies better prepare or find yourselves one day without a paycheck.

If you haven't read it, you should, as he has laid out tons of evidence of this change. 

I particularly like the story he tells of Jan Leth, executive creative director of OgilvyInteractive North America.  Its about an assignment they had for Six Flags.

"They had a promotion for their 45th anniversary. They wanted to give away 45,000 tickets for opening day to drive traffic. So we got a brief to do whatever: ads, microsite, whatever. But our interactive creative director just went off and posted it on Craigslist. Five hours later, 45,000 tickets were spoken for.

"No photo shoot. No after-shoot drinks at Shutters," he adds, with faux regret. Then, with somewhat less irony: "Now, the trick is, how do you get paid?"

Thats a good question.

The Truth in Ad Sales

Now for a break from the serious postings.  I bet that almost everyone in the ad business has been at least one of these characters at some time or another in their career.  Kind of sad....really.

Via BrandBrains